Press

A study by the think tanks Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe suggests that there are 330,000 fewer workers in the UK as a result of Brexit. That may only be 1% of the total workforce - but sectors such as transport, hospitality and retail have been particularly hard hit.

The Centre for European Reform’s John Springford developed an algorithm that compares data on UK performance with that of 22 other advanced economies; it is weighted to form a non-Brexiting (or doppelganger) UK for contrast. Updated results in December found that UK GDP is 5.5% lower than it would have been had Brexit not happened. Investment is 11% lower and goods trade 7% lower (services trade was mostly unaffected). That equates to roughly £40 billion ($50 billion) in lost tax revenue, which is making it harder for the government to cut taxes or meet other spending priorities. 

According to the latest research by the Centre for European Reform, an independent think-tank, the UK’s economy is now 5.5 per cent smaller than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU.

John Springford of the Centre for Economic Reform published research in December that pointed to the hit Brexit made on the UK’s trade and investment, and suggested Britain’s GDP is up to 5.5 per cent lower than it otherwise would have been.

"It's been more than a slow burn. It's been a serious reduction in economic performance," said John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform think-tank."If you impose barriers to trade, investment and migration with your biggest trading partner (EU), then you're going have quite a big hit to trade volumes, and to investment and to GDP," he said, pointing to a string of dismal economic data.

The latest analysis conducted jointly by two UK-based thinktanks, the Centre for European Reform and The UK in a Changing Europe, brings into sharp focus Brexit’s effect on the UK workforce. The research, led by John Springford at the London School of Economics and Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, finds that Brexit has reduced the UK’s workforce by 330,000 people, the equivalent of 1% of the total.

Others agreed that it reflects badly on Berlin. “Germany currently lacks a strategic culture and failing to see the bigger picture,” says Ian Bond director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform. “This episode delayed the moment that Ukraine gets weapons. It is bad for European cooperation, as it says you might have to think twice about working with Germany. And it is bad for Germany security as it will encourage Putin to think Berlin is the soft underbelly.”

Det er en udlægning, som den britiske sikkerhedsekspert Ian Bond er enig i. Han er tidligere topdiplomat og nu direktør ved tænketanken Centre for European Reform. »Når Erdogan kan vise, at han er hård mod de kurdiskforsvarende skandinaver med deres foragtelige liberale ideer om ytringsfrihed og alt det der, så appellerer det til hans nationalistiske vælgere«, siger han. »Og den her ekstremt tåbelige og provokerende afbrænding af en koran her i weekenden betyder, at Erdogan kan vise sine islamiske støtter, at han forsvarer islam ved at stoppe de gudløse skandinavers forsøg på at komme ind i Nato«, fortsætter sikkerhedseksperten.