We have until July to ask Europe for more time. How firm is that deadline?

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said: “My guess: there will not be a formal extension of the transition à la the withdrawal agreement. But there will be a de facto extension of large parts of the transition because in areas like security, research, education, services, investment, aviation etc there won’t be enough time to do deals this year.” We would have to continue paying into the EU budget over any lengthened transition period but perhaps something can be done.