Britain's referendum

The 'Ins' and 'Outs' of Britain's referendum

Press quote (Politico)
Simon Tilford
26 May 2015
From 
http://www.politico.eu/article/referendum-time-brexit-yes-no-campaign/
Simon Tilford is the deputy director of the CER, a highly influential think-tank, funded by private donations, which sits at the heart of Westminster’s pro-EU community. “This is not a campaign as such,” he said. “And it will not be until we have the answers to two key questions. When will the referendum be? What will the position of David Cameron’s government be on this?”

Cameron is expected to reveal more details about the coming referendum Wednesday in the Queen’s speech.

Tilford said he thinks the ‘Out’ campaign has some significant disadvantages. “They have a problem called Nigel Farage,” he said. “UKIP’s leader wants to play a leading role in this campaign: this is the fight of his life. But he is highly polarizing to most of the swing voters in this campaign. These are mainly young people aged 18 to 35 and middle-aged women. Both will be put off by the idea of voting for a UKIP-led campaign.”

“There is a grave danger,” said Charles Grant, director of the CER, “that the campaign is seen as the establishment campaign: with big finance, big business lecturing the population, with we know what’s best for you. This could very easily backfire, with the voters seeing this as their big chance to give bankers and politicians a kicking.”

...Grant sees an imperative to avoid the mistakes of the “No” campaign in the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, which nearly lost the vote. That campaign was widely seen as an establishment one, reliant on stark warnings from banks. Therefore he believes the ‘In’ campaign needs to be a real socio-economic alliance.

“Britain’s trade unions are mostly pro-European,” Grant said. “They know the value of social protection in EU legislation. However, they are close to silent in the debate over Britain’s membership. There is an attitude in their leadership that this is a job for someone else. Not engaging the trade unions in the campaign and leaving it to big business would be a mistake: the unions can still mobilize around 10 percent of the British electorate.”

Britain’s pro-EU bankers are likely going to make some unconventional allies. “You need to reach out to young voters,” Grant said, “and even though Ed Miliband was widely mocked for reaching out to [comedian] Russell Brand during the election, they will have to make similar moves. Whatever you think of his politics, Brand does have influence over young voters. Not looking like an establishment campaign means having artists and sportsmen at the forefront.”