As long as people continue to feel aggrieved and undervalued, Labour’s attempt to persuade them that things are getting better is doomed

The new trading rules it has pledged to negotiate with the EU will do little to offset the economic damage caused by Brexit, according to analysis carried out by the Centre for European Reform (CER).

John Springford, an associate fellow at the CER, estimates that a “reset of the relationship” of the sort Labour set out in its election manifesto, combined with the demands the EU is making in return, will raise economic activity in the UK by between 0.3% and 0.7% in the long run.

...The OBR, which has cited Springford’s work in the past, has said it believes much of that 4% “hit” has already been felt.

Springford himself found that the reduction in UK Gross Domestic Product caused by Brexit to be greater – around 5% by the summer of 2022.

...Springford has carried out what he calls a “rough and ready” set of estimates of the benefits of the “Brexit reset” as it has been explained.

He concludes that the prize glitters brightly enough to make it worth having but no more – that the negotiating demands for a new economic partnership don’t really add up to very much.

...Springford estimates that an agreement on the mutual recognition of professional standards, another Labour manifesto pledge, allowing UK lawyers and architects to practice freely in the EU, would also lift growth by around 0.1%.

Springford believes a Youth Mobility Scheme of the sort the EU is demanding would have a more significant impact on UK economic output than anything the government proposes.The EU wants 18 to 30-year-olds to be able to move freely between the UK and the EU, to live, work or study, for up to four years. But the UK Government has already rejected the idea. Forecasting migration is notoriously tricky but Springford says a “high estimate” – in which net migration in the UK increases by 30,000 a year – would lift GDP by 0.45% in 10 years time.