Far-right EU election gains could boost nationalist parties on home turf

First, said Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank, the parties that make up the current “grand coalition” of conservatives, socialists and liberals “are likely to lose a substantial number of seats, but maintain their overall majority”.

...“A strong electoral result for the far right is likely to lend them more momentum,” said Scazzieri of the CER. “A strong showing by the FPÖ could set it up for victory in the national vote. If its leader, Herbert Kickl, becomes chancellor, Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico would be joined by a third Ukraine-sceptic populist leader.”

...For Scazzieri, the full influence of the European parliamentary elections of 2024 “will be felt over time”, with mainstream political forces coming under pressure to move right on issues such as climate policy – and, potentially, the balance of power among national capitals shifting.