Britain after Brexit: A jumping off point for better EU relations

John Springford at the Centre for European Reform — best-known for his own work with “doppelgänger” analysis on the impacts of Brexit — finds Goldman’s analysis to be persuasive. 

His view is that most of the negative Brexit effects have come through, driven by the sterling fall in 2016 hitting real incomes in 2017 and 2018; business investment stagnating from 2016, and then a 10-15 per cent hit to trade after 2021, which is proving to be enduring.

Springford’s view is arguably the more cheering. He doesn’t rule out ongoing, deeper Brexit impacts but given that UK trade performance appears not to be deteriorating further (either against EU or doppelgänger) he reckons we may now have hit the Brexit bottom.

If that’s right then, as he tells me, things might be about to get better.

“In combination with inflation (and hopefully interest rates) coming down, energy prices falling, and high net immigration, growth should therefore pick up unless another shock comes along.”