Why the 'Canada-plus' Brexit deal is no magic bullet - and would leave us in a state of flux for years
The Treasury forecast might sound drastic, but according to Sam Lowe, the trade policy expert at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, it looks reasonable when set against the possible upside of trade deals. The EU’s own calculations of the benefits of the now stalled EU-US transatlantic trade deal or “TTIP” were only an uplift of 0.5 per cent of EU GDP by 2027....But why can’t ‘just-in-time’ supply chains just allow more time? They could, but as Mr Lowe points out, it will take some time before the EU-UK deal settles down and the timings of the system becomes clear.
“It would be possible for suppliers that are part of a pan-EU supply chain to build in the time to require customs,” he explains, “but we wouldn’t be clear for at least a year or two how long that would take.”
...“So an EU-UK FTA could include a ‘conformity assessment in standards’ agreement that allows a local body to confirm that a product does match EU standard, and that might reduce some bureaucracy for business,” adds Mr Lowe, “but doesn’t necessarily reduce friction at the border.”