What is the true cost of Brexit?
“The results are sobering,” says John Springford, the author of the report that removes all doubt that it is more Brexit rather than the pandemic that is bringing Britain to its knees.
The report by the Centre for European Reform think-tank unveils findings that show leaving the free trade market will have a bigger impact on the UK economy in the long term than Covid-19.
The CER, which says it is “pro-European but not uncritical”, echoed the Office of Budget Responsibility, saying “Brexit will reduce UK productivity by 4%, while the long-term forecast for Covid assumes that impact from the pandemic will reduce productivity by 2%”.
Mr Springford said: “The UK had a particularly deep recession in 2020, but it ended Covid restrictions sooner than many of its peers, thanks in part to starting its vaccination campaign early in 2021.
“That should have made its recovery from Covid faster than other countries, not slower.”
He said that "now that most advanced economies have surpassed their pre-pandemic level of output, we have a basis of comparison for the UK economy".
It found the UK gross domestic product is 5.2% smaller than a modelled “doppelgänger UK”, showing how it would act had it not quit the EU.