UK traders on Brexit: ‘It’s increased paperwork, stress, everything’

But John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform, says it’s important to track the UK’s performance against other, similar economies – an approach he calls the “doppelganger method”.

“If you compare UK trade after leaving the single market to UK trade before, then you’re not really comparing apples with apples, because you need to compare with other countries. There’s been a big global goods trade boom since the end of the pandemic,” he says.

Springford’s latest estimates using this approach suggested the UK’s total trade in goods – imports plus exports – was 7%, or £15bn, lower in the second quarter of 2022 than it would have been if it had tracked comparable economies. On services, he finds little difference.a