UK economy feeling the pain a year on from Brexit

“A loss of 4-5% of GDP is a big deal,” wrote John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform (CER), in a research note, agreeing with the OBR’s prediction. “Governments everywhere would leap on a policy that would raise GDP by 5%.” 

...The Centre for European Reform has attempted to answer this question by isolating the impact of Brexit using a “doppelganger UK” (constructed as a weighted average of other countries’ gross-goods trade flows) “as a counterfactual for what would have happened had the UK remained in the EU”. This analysis found that since the transition period ended, leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK goods trade by 15.8 percent as of August 2021. And in a separate, more recent analysis, the think tank found that in October 2021, “UK goods trade was 15.7%, or £12.6 billion, lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market”.